Leslie Gelb proposed a three-state partition of Iraq in a New York Times editorial. Gelb appears to be concerned with the efficiency of the reconstruction effort and feels that the Sunni in the center of the country should be isolated. Her overall argument is that Iraq is a concept that Churchill invented in the 1920s to better control the oil supply; before that the Ottomans ruled the Kurds, Sunni, ans Shia as separate provinces. What has kept the country together is the needs of the Sunni: having no natural resources to exploit, they impose themselves on the other groups, perpetuating the Iraq fiction for their own benefit.
Gelb proposes that a partition would allow US to withdraw from "the Sunni triangle". The Sunni can then collapse into chaos, if they desire, but more than likely they will figure out what kind of future they want. It is their opportunity to do some soul-searching. UN will go in place of the US. US would concentrate its efforts in areas that are more hospitable to it. "American officials could then wait for the troublesome and domineering Sunni, without oil or oil revenue, to moderate their ambitions or suffer the consequences." If they prove that they will share power with the other ethnic groups rather than attempt to monopolize it, there may yet be a future for Iraq.
Gelb insists that this plan would only go forward with the approval of neighboring Turkey and Iran. So long as the Kurd state did not cause problems for these neighbors, its existence would be acceptable.
Are there problems with Gelb's argument? Oh, yes.
First, a withdrawal from any part of Iraq would probably violate international law. US now has a responsibility as an occupying power to provide security and humanitarian aid. It cannot simply leave the Sunni to fight amongst themselves, although US might get away with nothing more than a reprimand from the international community. George Bush jr needs to goodwill of the international community (UN, NATO, and NGOs)--pulling out of some part of Iraq would be a bad start.
Second, any UN force that goes to Iraq would have a huge US presence. US would not spare the lives of soldiers if their were a switch-off. Resources would still be brought to the center of Iraq. Such a switch-off would be difficult in the current diplomatic environment where Bush is posturing before a bored international community.
Third, Gelb's assertion that a three-state solution would be acceptable if it did not anger Turkey or Iran bears too much weight. Commerce over Kurdish oil would itself be a matter of conflict between the Middle East states. How will Kurdish oil make it to the global market? Through Turkey or Iraq? Aren't the southward routes already developed and more effective? The economic infrastructure already exists.
Fourth, why should we take the example of a medieval state that survived too long (Ottoman Empire) as an example of how to administer the country. Mesopotamia was its own civilization, interconnected, for millenia.