Gephardt, in last nights debate, was asked about the issue of the conflict between Israel and Palestinians. His answer was good--nothing surprising, noting that Israelis and Palestinians want the conflict to come to an end. A recent James Baker Institute/International Crisis Group survey appear to show that the desire for peace is present:

• Israelis supported the recommended peace 53.3% to 43.9%.


• Palestinians supported the recommended peace 55.6% to 38.5%.

The survey is based on the notion that Israel would largely takeover Jerusalem (which has been a majortiy Jewish city for two centuries) with the exception of Arab suburbs that were only recently incorporated.

However, I do not think that this will happen soon. Even if Sharon agreed to this plan, he is not likely to make a firm deal with the Palestinian government. Why? Sharon is not looking to expand farther east. He has been harsh toward Jewish settlers, excluding some communities from the security fence. He has recently said that some settlements should be dismantled. But Sharon is not willing to commit publicly to an agreement that will anger a large section of the Israeli public (43% is not insignificant.) I believe that Sharon is hoping for a status quo that will require to commitment on his part. Perhaps Arafat wants the same.